BY GERALD BITOK
I might not be many things but I believe I am a good student of politics. The other day I had an argument with a friend who believes that Deputy President William Samoei Ruto has been cornered and isn’t wanted by the establishments and that the dynasties will block his ascent to the presidency by whatever means possible. Well, that’s the very same lame duck political statement I hear everyday. No different from the giant stories we grew up with.
Even if the dynasties don’t like Ruto, there’s totally nothing they can do about it and barring a natural calamity, he will be sworn in as President come 2022. Below, I un-package the possible dynasty candidates one by one and share my sentiments on why they wouldn’t make the cut:
PRESIDENT UHURU KENYATTA
We are not in the 60s where you could swear in a president at night. The last time Retired President Kibaki tried that, we almost became a failed state. Nobody will try that ever again!
There’s one thing that stands out about Uhuru: his civility. It takes an uncivilized person to stick to power in the 21st century. Uhuru is an ICC survivor with first hand experience on what political irresponsibility can do to a nation. Trust me he doesn’t want a second stint at the Hague.
Uhuru Kenyatta is being watched by everybody including the international community. He has a name and a legacy to protect. He would never want to be the first president in Kenya’s history to get stuck in office.
Assuming the current BBI draft is accepted unaltered and Uhuru Kenyatta decides to be a Prime Minister, he has to run for Gatundu MP against Moses Kuria. One must be incredibly foolish to actually imagine President Uhuru will go through all that trouble to be Prime Minister without portfolio under a powerful Raila presidency. After 2022, Uhuru can’t even resurface as a cattle dip chairman in Ichaweri.
There’s a basic rule of the thumb in both military and politics. The rule is; never trust an oppressed and bitter man with a sword. Their resentment clouds their judgement, revenge overtakes objectivity. If the dynasties are to choose between Raila and Ruto, they would pick Ruto without flinching. Raila is seen to harbor too much historical resentment to be trusted with power and interests. If he was to become president, he would have been made one ages ago.
Raila is a power thirsty individual who’s thrown ally after ally under the bus. He’s an untrustworthy individual, a man out to have it all for himself. Since 2013, he’s been lying to his allies about stepping down in their favor. In 2007, he dropped Ruto in the shredder after becoming a PM to save his political life, while in 2017 he threw the collective lot of Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetangula to go it alone with Uhuru in the now (in)famous handshake. It would be almost impossible for him to build alliances with anyone outside his ODM outfit.
Musalia is such a lazy politician, a sloth would feel jealous. Apart from drinking whisky shirtless at Pots and Pans in Riverside and shouting NASA HAO at NASA rallies, there’s nothing to write home about him. After repeated betrayal by Raila, he can’t accept to run under him and vice versa. He will have to go it alone or explore other possible alliances which would almost inevitably flop.
Gideon without the Moi family name is like an empty pizza box, beautifully tempting but light and empty. He is a padded prince who grew up believing Kenya is a monarchy and one day he would play polo, eat bacon, sleep and suddenly wake up a president! Outside his father’s compound, he can’t pull any political rally. Unless other dynasty representatives agree to back him in an alliance, and that would still be an unbelievably difficult sell, then forget him as a serious presidential candidate.
Kalonzo is a political wind sock. Let’s wait for the wind.
Uncle Matiang’i has never run for any political seat. He is grossly inexperienced, with the largest crowd he’s ever marshaled being passing out parades at Kiganjo. He has the excitement of a teenager who stole his father’s car on a Sunday afternoon to impress the girl next door(Raila) and it’s just a matter of time before he crashes into some political ditch.
The truth is, there’s NOBODY in the current political scene who has the political balls, experience, and grit to pull the rug under William Ruto’s feet. They have zero strategies of their own only hovering the political skies like vultures hoping Uhuru will ‘kill’ Ruto for them so that they can get a scavenging feast.
Ruto is not your average kind of politician, he is more like a political spirit. When you think you’ve blocked him, he goes right through your fingers. Moi tried it 1997, Raila tried it in 2007, Kibaki fired him, operatives tried to fix him at the ICC and all the attempts have failed. The schemes going on now won’t succeed either.
By design, Ruto is your next president, TAKE IT TO THE BANK!
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